MWBL- PLAYOFF PARTICIPANT PROGNOSTICATIONS
Playoff Participant Prognostications – Casey Hoch 08/24/2023
While some may want to try to dazzle you with playoff predictions, I just want to predict who’s getting there!
Heading into the final week of MWBL, we know that all teams will play 6 games, there are no make-up games scheduled, and thanks to the new postseason tiebreakers implemented last season, there will be no Game 163.
We will also see the second year of the 1st round “ghost win” for division champs, but this year the top 4 teams will be seeded by the record, rather than giving the top Wild Card an automatic #4 seed (I’m sure Selkirk appreciates).
American League
Dynamic Duo At The Top: Chicago (104 wins) and Hollywood (103 wins) have both clinched their divisions and will occupy the top two spots, though the order may change. Chicago holds the tiebreaker over Hollywood for playoff positioning.
AL East Leader At #3: Fremont (93 wins) leads the race to clinch the #3 spot and ghost win with a magic number of 1 over Cincinnati thanks to the tiebreaker. They can finish no lower than #4
Three In The Mix for 4-5-6: Cincinnati (88 wins), Mesa (87 wins), and Yonge Street (86 wins) are all in play for the next three spots. As mentioned, Cincinnati has a slight possibility to move into #3, and Yonge Street has a slight possibility of falling to #7 (they hold tiebreakers over the teams that could catch them). Whoever loses out will likely face Fremont with a ghost loss.
Two Spots For Three Teams: Southwest Detroit (81 wins), Virginia (81 wins), and non-directional Detroit (80 wins) are left to fight over the last two Wild Card spots and the right to play either Chicago or Hollywood in the first round. Southwest Detroit holds tiebreakers against the other two, while Virginia would lose any tiebreaker scenario.
How’s it gonna go (prediction time)?
Chicago faces longtime rival Detroit on the road. The Crime have been known to be tough on the Mobsters, but only won 1 of 7 in the first meeting. Chicago has nearly all their horses ready to go, while Detroit has no more starts for Zack Wheeler and a very depleted bullpen. PREDICTION: With the home crowd behind them, Detroit steals one behind Nola, but the 5 wins is enough to clinch first place for Chicago.
Hollywood hosts a much weaker Southbend team than we are used to seeing, and took the season series 5-2. Hollywood will likely have at least two starts by single digit starters. Southbend’s starting pitching is much worse- if Oviedo starts he may give the Lynx a chance, but the way I’m seeing it… PREDICTION: Hollywood sweeps at home but finishes second due to the tiebreaker.
Fremont heads to a Virginia team fighting for the last wild card spot. The two teams split the season series 3-3. The Cannons have all their top starters available for the final series, while Virginia has limited baters for Luis M. Castillo and can’t pitch Nick Lodolo or Trevor Williams, though Nick Neidert gives them an arm for the end of the season. PREDICTION: Fremont’s inconsistent offense and two starts from Triston McKenzie result in another 3-3 split, giving Fremont the #3 seed.
Cincinnati is on the road against a woeful Motor City team that played them tough the first time around, taking 3 of 7. The Skyliners have a healthy and available roster, while Motor City is down to a lot of Grade 3 starts and a tired lineup. PREDICTION: Cincinnati takes the road matchup 4-2, and the #4 spot on tiebreaker over Yonge Street.
Yonge Street hosts middling division rival Tijuana, a team they beat 5-2 in the first matchup. The Stalkers have a few injuries in the lineup, but can throw out some pitching for this final series that could dominate. PREDICTION: Playing at home, the Stalkers get the big sweep of the Bottle Rockets to earn the #5 spot and a matchup with the team they finished tied with in Cincinnati.
Mesa is on the road against a Coconut Creek team that they dominated 7-0 the first time around. Mesa’s pitching staff is shrinking and running on fumes, while Coconut Creek looks to be in better shape in that department. PREDICTION: Mesa does enough to win the series 4-2, and settles in the #6 spot to play Fremont.
Southwest Detroit is on the road at division rival Dallas, who only won 2 of 7 the first time they met. The Chihuahuas have some tired bats, and don’t have their full complement of starters, though they have some relievers that can fill in just fine. Dallas is mostly healthy and available, they just don’t have much in the way of starting pitching. PREDICTION: SWD gets 4 wins on the road and gets the #7 spot.
Virginia prediction from earlier was a 3-3 split with Fremont, which is enough for the #8 seed in the AL.
Detroit prediction from earlier was losing 5 of 6 to Chicago, and missing the playoffs.
Playoff Matchups:
1. Chicago (ghost win) vs 8. Virginia (season series 8-4 Chicago)
2. Hollywood (ghost win) vs 7. Southwest Detroit (season series 9-3 Hollywood)
3. Fremont (ghost win) vs. 6. Mesa (season series 8-4 Fremont)
4. Cincinnati vs. 5. Yonge Street (season series 8-4 Cincinnati)
National League
Tempe Being Tempe: Sometimes they have an off-year, but in the end, Tempe (124 wins) is inevitable. Tempe has locked up the best record in MWBL by a large margin. Only the tenth 120+ win season for the Tempers, whatever…
In The Wrong Division: Then there’s Selkirk (105 wins). More wins than anyone in MWBL but Tempe, but they’re stuck in the same division. At least this year they will finish with the #2 seed, and can avoid Tempe until the NLCS, all things going as expected (though they won’t benefit from the ghost win).
NL East Showdown: Baltimore (95 wins) has a 3-game lead over Harsens Island (92 wins) for the NL East (and likely #3 spot), and a commanding 5-2 lead in the season series/tiebreaker. Hey, and they are playing each other, which makes for a more exciting matchup than what the AL has given us. The Walleye would need to pull off a 5-1 or better performance or else it’s the Wild Card, so maybe it’s not that exciting. Though the loser may fall to 5th place.
Sacramento Lurking: Sacramento (92 wins) has already clinched another NL West title, so the real drama here is whether they can jump the NL East winner to avoid that potential 2nd round matchup with Tempe, Though isn’t Tempe vs Sacramento what the fans pay to see (apologies to the Canadian contingent)? They do have a tiebreaker over Baltimore, but at 6-6 vs HIW, would go to the extended tiebreaking criteria if needed.
Under The Radar Hall Of Fame Sleeper?: Speaking of wrong division… Right now Columbus (87 wins) would finish 6th and play a division winner with a ghost loss in hand. It’s hard to imagine jumping into fourth, but crazy things can happen. And would you rather take a ghost loss or face Selkirk?
Congrats, You’re In, Who Wants Tempe? Unlike the AL, the NL has all 8 postseason teams figured out. Portland (79 wins) and Triple Creek (77 wins) playing the Tempe lottery, with the Lumber Jax carrying a two-game lead over the Patriots into the final week. Portland has the tiebreaker too, so that makes it essentially a 3-game lead.
How’s it gonna go (prediction time)?
Tempe gets Columbus in the final week on the road. The Tempers took the first series 5-2. There’s no franchise win record to play for, it’s all about setting up for the playoffs. And boy can Tempe use the playoffs… they will just scratch by with openers to get through the final series, and the bullpen will have to pick up the slack. PREDICTION: This depleted Tempe team still has enough to force a split 3-3 with Columbus. Only 127 wins…
Selkirk gets a second-division Valdosta side at home that they only beat 4-3 previously. Fried’s injury keeps him out for this series and limits him for the 1st round of the playoffs. Cease is at his limits. Valdosta can play tough if it gets to the bullpen. PREDICTION: Selkirk still has enough to take this 4-2.
Baltimore gets the big divisional series at home. They come in with a previous 5-2 series win over the Walleye, and have their team mostly healthy and available. Harsens Island does too, but their roster is less impressive. PREDICTION: Baltimore rides the home crowd to a 5-1 series win and 3rd place finish.
Sacramento gets to host a playoff-bound Sacramento at home, having eked out a 4-3 series win previously. Both teams go into the finale with the players they want. PREDICTION: Sacramento’s home crowd gets them to the 4-2 series win and a 4th place finish.
Harsens Island predicted earlier was to go 1-5 vs Baltimore to play Sacramento in the 4-5 matchup, with a ghost loss assessed.
Columbus predicted earlier as a 3-3 split, giving them a matchup with Baltimore with a ghost loss given.
Portland predicted earlier as a 4-2 loser in the series to Sacramento but still finishes seventh via the tiebreaker.
Triple Creek has little left in the pitching tank, but then Long Beach has little to offer as well. PREDICTION: Triple Creek bats give them a 4-2 series win. The Patriots catch up to Portland in wins but still lose the Tempe lottery.
Playoff Matchups:
1. Tempe (ghost win) vs 8. Tripel Creek (season series 9-3 Tempe)
2. Selkirk vs 7. Portland (season series 8-4 Selkirk)
3. Baltimore (ghost win) vs. 6. Columbus (season series 7-6 Baltimore)
4. Sacramento (ghost win) vs. 5. Harsens Island (season series 6-6 split)