2022 EXPECTED WINS
Thanks to Casey Hoch of the Fremont Cannons for putting this together.
Team | Wins | Losses | Runs For | R Allowed | Exp W % | Exp Win | Exp Loss | Difference | Exp |
FRE | 63 | 21 | 490 | 306 | .707 | 59 | 25 | 4 | 1.87244 |
HOL | 55 | 29 | 436 | 303 | .664 | 56 | 28 | -1 | 1.87244 |
SBL | 52 | 32 | 425 | 374 | .560 | 47 | 37 | 5 | 1.87244 |
YSS | 47 | 37 | 404 | 340 | .580 | 49 | 35 | -2 | 1.87244 |
CHI | 46 | 38 | 413 | 291 | .658 | 55 | 29 | -9 | 1.87244 |
DET | 42 | 42 | 367 | 350 | .522 | 44 | 40 | -2 | 1.87244 |
MSS | 42 | 42 | 380 | 392 | .485 | 41 | 43 | 1 | 1.87244 |
CCC | 41 | 43 | 312 | 329 | .475 | 40 | 44 | 1 | 1.87244 |
CIN | 40 | 44 | 364 | 406 | .449 | 38 | 46 | 2 | 1.87244 |
SWD | 40 | 44 | 338 | 329 | .513 | 43 | 41 | -3 | 1.87244 |
VIR | 37 | 47 | 339 | 413 | .409 | 34 | 50 | 3 | 1.87244 |
DAL | 34 | 50 | 290 | 372 | .386 | 32 | 52 | 2 | 1.87244 |
TIJ | 27 | 57 | 361 | 461 | .387 | 33 | 51 | -6 | 1.87244 |
MCM | 22 | 62 | 301 | 554 | .242 | 20 | 64 | 2 | 1.87244 |
LBD | 62 | 22 | 353 | 221 | .698 | 59 | 25 | 3 | 1.7866 |
SEL | 59 | 25 | 425 | 252 | .718 | 60 | 24 | -1 | 1.7866 |
SAC | 52 | 32 | 346 | 270 | .609 | 51 | 33 | 1 | 1.7866 |
TEM | 52 | 32 | 387 | 243 | .697 | 59 | 25 | -7 | 1.7866 |
JNE | 45 | 39 | 291 | 283 | .512 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 1.7866 |
BAL | 44 | 39 | 372 | 333 | .549 | 46 | 37 | -2 | 1.7866 |
BET | 43 | 41 | 347 | 348 | .499 | 42 | 42 | 1 | 1.7866 |
CRK | 41 | 43 | 329 | 339 | .487 | 41 | 43 | 0 | 1.7866 |
TCP | 35 | 49 | 289 | 308 | .472 | 40 | 44 | -5 | 1.7866 |
POR | 33 | 50 | 285 | 363 | .394 | 33 | 50 | 0 | 1.7866 |
COL | 32 | 52 | 291 | 384 | .379 | 32 | 52 | 0 | 1.7866 |
RRG | 30 | 54 | 285 | 401 | .352 | 30 | 54 | 0 | 1.7866 |
VAL | 30 | 54 | 298 | 424 | .348 | 29 | 55 | 1 | 1.7866 |
HIW | 28 | 54 | 262 | 391 | .328 | 27 | 55 | 1 | 1.7866 |
These were calculated using the Pythagorean/Pythagenport Expected Wins Calculation. |
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Expected Winning Percentage= (Runs Scored^exp)/((Runs Scored^exp)+(Runs Allowed^exp)), |
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where the exponent (exp) is 0.45+1.5*log(League-Wide Runs Per Game). | |||||||||
The AL scored ~14.5% more runs than the NL. | |||||||||
Total Runs | 9780 | ||||||||
AL Runs | 5220 | ||||||||
NL Runs | 4560 | ||||||||