2021 WORLD SERIES PREVIEW

Although they’ve met once in the Fall Classic, (2019, in which Tempe won in five games), these teams have vastly different World Series experiences. Tempe has been here 15 times (winning 11), while this is Detroit’s third World Series chance. The Crime have split their previous two appearances.

In this strange year of expanded and re-formatted playoffs, the teams took different paths through the postseason. Tempe only lost two games through three rounds, while Detroit had to go the seven-game limit to get through the Wild Card round before winning in six games in both the LDS and LCS. We’ll see if that trial-by-fire helps or hurts the Detroit squad.

This epic match-up pits the number one pitching team, Tempe, who led the league in ERA (1.99), Saves (30), and fewest runs and hits, against a Crime squad that led their league in Quality Starts and was eighth in ERA at 3.15. Team hitting shows a power edge for Detroit, outhomering the Tempers 122-97, and, while the Tempers led the league with a .251 team batting average, Detroit was close behind at .248, good for third. Team fielding would seem to be an even match, as only a percentage point separates their fielding average (.985-.984).

While surprise heroes always seem to emerge in the postseason, there are some marquee players to watch in the Series. For Tempe, Marcell Ozuna led the league in Hits (87), and Runs (51), was second in Runs Created (71.4), third in batting average (.341), OBP (.429), and Total Average (1.178), he also made the top 10 in three other categories. Freddie Freeman made the top 10 in seven categories. On the pitching side, Yu Darvish paced the Tempers staff. He led the league in Wins (13), IP (107.1), and Starts (18). He was also in the top 5 in winning percentage (.867) and ERA (1.84). Adam Wainwright was number two in ERA at 1.39.

Detroit’s offensive standout was Luke Voit, who made a great case for MVP with second-place finishes in Slugging (.693) and Total Average (1.204). He finished third in Runs (53), RBI (61), Home Runs (23), and Runs Created (66.2). A .342 batting average was good for 4^th in the league.  He also had top 10 finishes in OBP (.414) and hits (79).

Neither team is looking to the catching position for a lot of offense, but Detroit’s catchers provide some pop and a slight edge.  Advantage Detroit

There’s not much to separate these two, except about 100 AB’s. Freeman was in the Top 5 in Hits, Runs, Doubles, and Walks. Belt managed to surpass him in HRs and RBI despite the difference in playing time. They even had identical .996 fielding averages.  Advantage Even

There’s not much offense to be found at this position, but what there is will come from Tommy La Stella. Cesar Hernandez supplied steady doubles power during the season. For Tempe, Ozzie Albies made the offensive numbers look more respectable, but ended the season in the minors. If Tommy La Stella sees significant playing time in the Series.  Advantage Detroit

While Brandon Crawford’s numbers are solid, they can’t compare to Xander Bogaerts’ production and durability. Bogaerts was 7^th in the NL in Home Runs and 5^th in RBI.  Advantage Tempe

Third base places a premium on power and production, and Manny Machado supplied plenty of both this season. The discrepancy in ABs doesn’t account for all the differences in their numbers.  Rendon ranked 9^th in Walks.  Advantage Detroit

Marcell Ozuna is the marquee player at this position, and you must do something to outshine Bryce Harper. Ozuna checked every box, leading the league in Hits and Runs, coming in 2^nd in Runs Created, 3^rd in Batting, Total Average, and OBP, and 5^th in Multi-hit Games. Harper was an offensive leader on his team, while Gardner and Schwarber contributed solid numbers. After Ozuna, there’s a bit of a production drop-off for Tempe, although Michael Brantley is a doubles machine. Cumulative power and production numbers are virtually identical for both squads. It could come down to the contributions of fourth outfielders DJ Stewart (Detroit) and David Peralta (Tempe).  Advantage Even

No matter who we put at DH for Tempe; Luke Voit was going to get the nod here. In his bid for MVP, he finished 2^nd in Slugging and Total Average, 3^rd in Runs, RBI, HR, Runs Created, and Runs Contributed. And for emphasis, he finished 4th in Batting and 6^th in OBP and Hits.  Advantage Detroit

Detroit’s starting pitching was consistently strong all year, but Tempe’s top three was dominant. Yu Darvish was the ace, leading the league in Wins, IP, and Starts. He was 4^th in Winning Percentage and 5^th in ERA. Adam Wainwright was undefeated and came in 2^nd in ERA and Starts and 10th in IP. Kenta Maeda gave the Tempers three starters in the top 10 in ERA. For Detroit, Aaron Nola tied for 3^rd in Wins and 5^th in Winning Percentage and placed 8^th in Strikeouts. Chris Bassitt was 8^th in IP and tied for 2^nd in Starts. Tempe’s starters don’t have eye-popping strikeout numbers, but they keep walks to a minimum. Detroit starters are susceptible to the longball, as power pitchers can be.  Advantage Tempe

It’s a good thing for Tempe that their top three starters were such workhorses because there was a revolving door on the bullpen gate. Jesse Hahn’s 10 saves, and Anthony Bass’s versatility anchored a somewhat chaotic situation for Tempe.  Both will be key in the Series. Tempe did get good run prevention when needed, as evidenced by 25 holds from the four relievers profiled. Detroit got good production out of their pen throughout, with some appearances in the league leaders: Trevor May ranked 3rd in relievers K/9, 4^th in Ks for relievers, and 5^th in lowest BB/9. Kyle Zimmer was 8^th in the league in Wins and 2^nd in Winning Percentage. May and Aaron Loup must avoid the longball, which plagued them in the regular season.  Advantage even

Overall team stats and MWBL League rankings:

Detroit has racked up an impressive list of head-to-head advantages, but Tempe holds some key ones, as well. Can Tempe’s trio of aces trump Detroit’s positional strength and versatile bullpen? Who will win the Ozuna-Voit Battle of the MVP Candidates? As in many previous Fall Classics, it could come down to a key role player or bench player. If the starting pitching falters or cancels each other out, and it becomes a bullpen series, it could swing the focus to offense, giving Detroit the edge, they need to take it to 7 games and end their swan song season with a World Championship.