2019 MID-SEASON EXPECTED WINS
Thanks to Casey Hoch of Fremont for putting this together.
Team | Wins | Losses | Runs For | R Allowed | Exp W % | Exp Win | Exp Loss | Difference | exp |
MCM | 54 | 30 | 385 | 255 | .645 | 54 | 30 | 0 | 1.447 |
DAL | 46 | 38 | 371 | 350 | .521 | 44 | 40 | 2 | 1.447 |
MAN | 45 | 39 | 404 | 386 | .516 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 1.447 |
FRE | 37 | 47 | 424 | 430 | .495 | 42 | 42 | -5 | 1.447 |
SWD | 25 | 58 | 305 | 460 | .356 | 30 | 53 | -5 | 1.447 |
Team | Wins | Losses | Runs For | R Allowed | Exp W % | Exp Win | Exp Loss | Difference | exp |
DET | 52 | 32 | 400 | 335 | .564 | 47 | 37 | 5 | 1.447 |
YSS | 45 | 39 | 433 | 399 | .530 | 44 | 40 | 1 | 1.447 |
CHI | 43 | 41 | 384 | 355 | .528 | 44 | 40 | -1 | 1.447 |
TIJ | 23 | 61 | 281 | 550 | .275 | 23 | 61 | 0 | 1.447 |
Team | Wins | Losses | Runs For | R Allowed | Exp W % | Exp Win | Exp Loss | Difference | exp |
SBL | 52 | 31 | 462 | 321 | .629 | 52 | 31 | 0 | 1.447 |
MSS | 49 | 35 | 464 | 373 | .578 | 49 | 35 | 0 | 1.447 |
HOL | 48 | 36 | 428 | 349 | .573 | 48 | 36 | 0 | 1.447 |
VIR | 37 | 47 | 362 | 419 | .447 | 38 | 46 | -1 | 1.447 |
CCC | 31 | 53 | 312 | 433 | .384 | 32 | 52 | -1 | 1.447 |
Team | Wins | Losses | Runs For | R Allowed | Exp W % | Exp Win | Exp Loss | Difference | exp |
PIT | 45 | 39 | 344 | 285 | .584 | 49 | 35 | -4 | 1.806 |
BET | 42 | 41 | 411 | 347 | .576 | 48 | 35 | -6 | 1.806 |
JNE | 42 | 42 | 300 | 297 | .505 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 1.806 |
CRK | 30 | 54 | 289 | 409 | .348 | 29 | 55 | 1 | 1.806 |
HIW | 26 | 57 | 250 | 378 | .322 | 27 | 56 | -1 | 1.806 |
Team | Wins | Losses | Runs For | R Allowed | Exp W % | Exp Win | Exp Loss | Difference | exp |
TEM | 67 | 17 | 401 | 191 | .792 | 67 | 17 | 0 | 1.806 |
COL | 53 | 31 | 393 | 302 | .617 | 52 | 32 | 1 | 1.806 |
SEL | 36 | 48 | 340 | 450 | .376 | 32 | 52 | 4 | 1.806 |
VAL | 33 | 50 | 315 | 385 | .410 | 34 | 49 | -1 | 1.806 |
Team | Wins | Losses | Runs For | R Allowed | Exp W % | Exp Win | Exp Loss | Difference | exp |
SAC | 59 | 25 | 386 | 249 | .688 | 58 | 26 | 1 | 1.806 |
LBD | 44 | 40 | 340 | 306 | .547 | 46 | 38 | -2 | 1.806 |
TCP | 43 | 41 | 346 | 362 | .480 | 40 | 44 | 3 | 1.806 |
POR | 40 | 42 | 334 | 297 | .553 | 45 | 37 | -5 | 1.806 |
RRG | 25 | 58 | 240 | 431 | .258 | 21 | 62 | 4 | 1.806 |
These were calculated using the Pythagorean/Pythagenport Expected Wins Calculation. | |||||||||
Expected Winning Percentage= (Runs Scored^exp)/((Runs Scored^exp)+(Runs Allowed^exp)), | |||||||||
where the exponent (exp) is 0.45+1.5*log(League-Wide Runs Per Game). | |||||||||
The AL scored ~15% more runs than the NL. | |||||||||
Total Runs | 10104 | ||||||||
AL Runs | 5415 | ||||||||
NL Runs | 4689 |