2016 MID-SEASON EXPECTED WINS
Thanks to Casey Hoch for putting this together.
Team | Wins | Losses | Runs For | R Allowed | Exp W % | Exp Win | Exp Loss | Difference | exp |
DAL | 57 | 27 | 395 | 284 | .643 | 54 | 30 | 3 | 1.789 |
MCM | 55 | 29 | 372 | 277 | .629 | 53 | 31 | 2 | 1.789 |
MAN | 42 | 42 | 304 | 274 | .546 | 46 | 38 | -4 | 1.789 |
FRE | 32 | 52 | 284 | 455 | .301 | 25 | 59 | 7 | 1.789 |
SWD | 21 | 63 | 239 | 435 | .255 | 21 | 63 | 0 | 1.789 |
DET | 62 | 22 | 497 | 234 | .794 | 67 | 17 | -5 | 1.789 |
CHI | 58 | 26 | 399 | 263 | .678 | 57 | 27 | 1 | 1.789 |
YSS | 44 | 40 | 373 | 332 | .552 | 46 | 38 | -2 | 1.789 |
TIJ | 39 | 45 | 349 | 392 | .448 | 38 | 46 | 1 | 1.789 |
HOL | 54 | 30 | 438 | 271 | .702 | 59 | 25 | -5 | 1.789 |
VIR | 38 | 46 | 332 | 441 | .376 | 32 | 52 | 6 | 1.789 |
MSS | 35 | 49 | 362 | 406 | .449 | 38 | 46 | -3 | 1.789 |
SBL | 28 | 56 | 348 | 463 | .375 | 31 | 53 | -3 | 1.789 |
CCC | 23 | 61 | 205 | 370 | .258 | 22 | 62 | 1 | 1.789 |
Team | Wins | Losses | Runs For | R Allowed | Exp W % | Exp Win | Exp Loss | Difference | exp |
BET | 52 | 32 | 316 | 249 | .605 | 51 | 33 | 1 | 1.789 |
PIT | 42 | 42 | 354 | 352 | .503 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 1.789 |
NYO | 37 | 47 | 276 | 280 | .494 | 41 | 43 | -4 | 1.789 |
JNE | 32 | 52 | 298 | 353 | .425 | 36 | 48 | -4 | 1.789 |
CRK | 29 | 55 | 284 | 355 | .401 | 34 | 50 | -5 | 1.789 |
COL | 65 | 19 | 375 | 252 | .671 | 56 | 28 | 9 | 1.789 |
TEM | 62 | 22 | 398 | 228 | .730 | 61 | 23 | 1 | 1.789 |
VAL | 40 | 44 | 275 | 314 | .441 | 37 | 47 | 3 | 1.789 |
SEL | 22 | 62 | 224 | 391 | .270 | 23 | 61 | -1 | 1.789 |
SAC | 59 | 25 | 368 | 208 | .735 | 62 | 22 | -3 | 1.789 |
CWK | 56 | 28 | 376 | 245 | .683 | 57 | 27 | -1 | 1.789 |
LBD | 43 | 41 | 271 | 312 | .437 | 37 | 47 | 6 | 1.789 |
TCP | 27 | 57 | 263 | 363 | .360 | 30 | 54 | -3 | 1.789 |
GHG | 22 | 62 | 215 | 391 | .255 | 21 | 63 | 1 | 1.789 |
These were calculated using the Pythagorean/Pythagenport Expected Wins Calculation.
Expected Winning Percentage= (Runs Scored^exp)/((Runs Scored^exp)+(Runs Allowed^exp)),
where the exponent (exp) is 0.45+1.5*log(League-Wide Runs Per Game), which in our case was 1.789362284 .
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/glossary.html#PYTHAGENPORT